The Disintegration of Syria and Its Impact on Israel

(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - Syria's fragmentation into separate, battling enclaves is intensifying. The two main enclaves are "central Syria," controlled by the Assad regime, and the Islamic State. The Assad regime and Hizbullah, like the opposition, have been taking heavy casualties. In an unusual speech on July 26, 2015, President Bashar Assad explained that in light of a manpower shortage, the regime's army is unable to reconquer all the territories that the opposition has seized. The nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers has boosted Iran's capacity to support the Assad regime. The anticipated lifting of sanctions on Iran is set to enable it to funnel additional resources to this purpose. Iran and Hizbullah's attempts to create a base for terror activity against Israel from the northern Golan Heights continue, relying on released terrorist Samir Kuntar and Druze elements. Against the backdrop of the nuclear deal, there are increasing chances of cooperation among the U.S., Iran, and Assad, and possibly also Turkey and Saudi Arabia, in the campaign against the Islamic State. Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser is Director of the Project on the Regional Implications of the Syrian Civil War at the Jerusalem Center. He was formerly Director General of the Israel Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the Research and Analysis and Production Division of IDF Military Intelligence.

2015-09-04 00:00:00

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