A War this Summer?

[Ha'aretz] Ze'ev Schiff - Will there be war this summer? Apart from Israel, there are four parties - Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas - who must be asked this question. Iran will determine whether Hizbullah launches a new war. Tehran is involved in large-scale military operations in a number of places. A major war today, initiated by Iran, could endanger its main objectives. Hizbullah will not embark on an all-out war if Iran is against it. If it could, Hizbullah would renew its war of attrition, but the organization's freedom of action in Lebanon is limited. Hamas could ignite a war in Gaza. The more serious leaders of Hamas know that a war this summer would be too early to serve their purposes. In a year from now, Gaza will pose a greater threat to Israel, especially if the government doesn't come up with better solutions to the conflict. What is happening today to Sderot could happen someday to Ashkelon. There is no question that Syria is readying for combat. Again, the question is whether it has plans to initiate a war. The cautious conclusion is that none of the parties today are interested in an all-out war. But war could erupt by mistake.

2007-05-18 01:00:00

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