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Source: http://npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1092&rid=4
Iran's Efforts to Acquire Nuclear Weapons
(Nonproliferation Policy Education Center) Gregory S. Jones - It is difficult to consider the current nuclear developments in Iran as benign. Rather Iran does indeed have a nuclear weapons program. Its expanding centrifuge enrichment capacity, and stockpiles of 3.5% and 19.7% enriched uranium as well as its likely continuing research on the non-nuclear components of nuclear weapons, is moving Iran ever closer to a nuclear weapons capability. As Iran moves closer to having a nuclear weapons capability, it becomes increasingly likely that Iran will make the decision to produce nuclear weapons. More likely, Iran will spend the next few years improving its position, by further shortening the time it will take it to move the last distance to a nuclear weapons capability. By 2012 to 2015, this approach will allow Iran to become a de facto nuclear weapon state without ever violating its IAEA safeguards or detonating a nuclear weapon.