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Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/15/opinion/15gerecht.html
Iran's Revolution: Year 2
(New York Times) Reuel Marc Gerecht - While the riots of last June did not topple the mullahs, the Islamic Republic is now permanently unstable. Every national holiday has the potential of turning into a day of protest, and the regime must send out hundreds of thousands of security forces. While many in the West casually dismiss the movement because it's been unable to maintain huge street demonstrations, Ayatollah Khamenei has an acute grasp of how numerous his enemies are and how volatile the country remains. Khamenei is far more likely to compromise on nuclear weapons if he feels he's about to be undone by the Green Movement. The opposition needs access to satellite-fed Internet connections which are difficult for the government to shut down. Just $50 million per year could open the entire country to the Internet. Millions less would allow the diverse range of pro-democracy groups to communicate with each other and more effectively counter the regime's security forces. The writer, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, is a former Middle Eastern specialist in the CIA's clandestine service.