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Prepared for the
Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
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To contact the Presidents Conference: click here In-Depth Issues:
Foreign Fighters Captured in Iraq Come From 27, Mostly Arab, Lands - Dexter Filkins (New York Times)
In Unruly Gaza, Clans Compete in Power Void - Steven Erlanger (New York Times)
Beirut Wants Palestinian Bases Out - Nicholas Blanford (Christian Science Monitor)
Palestinians Rule Out Al-Qaeda Presence in Gaza (Reuters)
Police Say Islamist Terrorists Are Targeting Netherlands' Ruling Elite - Bruce Crumley (TIME)
Russia's Islamic Revolt Is Spreading - Mark Franchetti and Alexei Shvedov (Sunday Times-UK)
See also Islamists Hit Russia - Editorial (Washington Times)
Iran Explosions Kill Four (AP/Fox News)
U.S. Group: "AIPAC Case Hampers Freedom of Press" - Nathan Guttman (Jerusalem Post)
Useful Reference:
Temple Mount Video Tour (Ynet News)
FBI Hate Crime Statistics for 2004 (FBI/Department of Justice)
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
After meeting with Mahmoud Abbas at the White House Thursday, President Bush said: "Israeli withdrawal creates new opportunities, creates responsibilities for the Palestinian people. The way forward must begin by confronting the threat that armed gangs pose to a genuinely democratic Palestine. And those armed gangs must confront the threat that armed gangs pose to lasting peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians." "In the coming days, I'll be naming our new coordinator to build on the progress General Ward has made. This person will take on an enhanced mission to help President Abbas and the Palestinian Authority carry out their responsibility to end terror attacks, dismantle terrorist infrastructure, maintain law and order, and, one day, provide security for their own state." "One thing that will not happen is that we will try - the United States will try to conform and force parties to make decisions based upon the political schedule in America. That doesn't make any sense....I'd like to see two states. And if it happens before I get out of office, I'll be there to witness the ceremony. And if it hadn't - if it doesn't, we will work hard to lay that foundation so that the process becomes irreversible." (White House) See also Bush Backs Away from Timetable for Setting Up Palestinian State - Guy Dinmore President George W. Bush Thursday backed away from the goal he set a year ago to help establish an independent Palestinian state by the end of his second term. (Financial Times-UK) See also Palestinian Leader Urged To Confront Militant Groups - Glenn Kessler President Bush "pressed on security pretty hard," said Edward Abington Jr., a former State Department official who advises the PA. He said Bush urged Abbas to "assert your authority." A senior administration official said the Bush administration believes that allowing armed groups to participate in elections is a "fundamental contradiction" to building a democratic state, but "we are not going to write election laws for the Palestinians." (Washington Post) Israeli officials maintained there was a basic difference between the demands that U.S. President George W. Bush Thursday presented to the Palestinians and to Israel. A senior official specifically alluded to Bush's statement that, "The way forward must begin by confronting the threat that armed gangs pose." The key word was "begin." The official noted the Palestinians have been pushing for final status negotiations, now, even though the Roadmap envisaged such talks only when the sides reach the third and final phase of that plan; not when they are still in the beginning stage. "The Palestinian commitment to dismantle terror organizations is a condition for advancing the peace process," the source stressed. On the other hand, Bush's demands of Israel were not conditions for progress, the senior official continued. Israel accepts them but they relate to matters that are "part of the next stages in the roadmap." The roadmap calls for a settlement freeze that should be implemented in Phase 1, but Israel has maintained the sides have not yet reached Phase 1. The Israeli official dismissed the idea that Hamas militants would lay down their arms once they enter the political arena. Speaking after the Bush-Abbas meeting, the Israeli government official said Hamas' participation in the elections is "an internal Palestinian issue. However, terror is not an internal Palestinian issue. It concerns us and therefore we operate against it." (UPI) The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon was a carefully planned terrorist act organized by Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services, according to a report by the chief UN investigator, Detlev Mehlis, made public on Thursday. The report said, "The assassination of 14 February 2005 was carried out by a group with an extensive organization and considerable resources and capabilities....There is converging evidence pointing at both Lebanese and Syrian involvement in this terrorist act." (New York Times) See also Top Syrian Officials Named in Report on Hariri Killing - James Bone and Richard Beeston The inquiry implicated Gen. Assef Shawkat, the brother-in-law of President Assad of Syria and his military intelligence chief, in the plot to murder Hariri. One witness told the inquiry that two weeks before the assassination, Shawkat forced a scapegoat, who was later killed, to record a videotape claiming responsibility for the suicide bombing. (Times-UK) See also Accused General: "We Are Going to Send Him on a Trip - Bye, Bye Hariri" - Mayssam Zaaroura, Majdoline Hatoum, and Leila Hatoum Hariri's son, Beirut MP Saad Hariri, said his father "told me that President Bashar Assad threatened him, telling him: 'This is what I want. If you think that President Chirac and you are going to run Lebanon, you are mistaken. It is not going to happen. President Lahoud is me. Whatever I tell him, he follows suit. This extension [of Lahoud's term] is to happen or else I will break Lebanon over your head and Walid Jumblat's....So, you either do as you are told or we will get you and your family wherever you are.'" The UN report states: "General Jamil Al-Sayyed [head of Lebanese general intelligence], according to the witness, cooperated closely with General Mustapha Hamdan [commander of Lebanon's presidential guard] and General Raymond Azar [head of Lebanon's military intelligence] in the preparation of the assassination of Mr. Hariri. He also coordinated with General Rustum Ghazali [head of Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon]....Another witness approached the Commission and stated that he had met with General Hamdan in the middle of October 2004. General Hamdan talked very negatively about Mr. Hariri, accusing him of being pro-Israeli. General Hamdan ended the conversation by stating: 'We are going to send him on a trip - bye, bye Hariri.'" (Daily Star-Lebanon) See also Report of the International Investigation Commission (Mehlis Report) (United Nations) Syria's fractious opposition groups are taking advantage of international pressure on the Ba'athist regime and joining forces to demand domestic political reform. The "Damascus declaration," a statement issued by secular and leftwing parties over the weekend and calling for radical change, has gained support from the Muslim Brotherhood. (Financial Times-UK) See also Next Year in Damascus - Syrian Democracy Is Thriving - in Exile - Jeffrey Gedman I attended a meeting of about 40 Syrian exile oppositionists in Paris last week. These folks all seem to believe that after 42 years in power, the Baathist order in Damascus is ready for meltdown. The author is director of the Aspen Institute Berlin. (Weekly Standard) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Six people were wounded when their vehicles were hit by stones thrown on the Jerusalem-Beitar road near Husan in the Bethlehem area Thursday night. A few hours earlier, soldiers shot dead a Palestinian man throwing petrol bombs in the same area, the army said. A motorist had complained that a petrol bomb had landed near his vehicle. Soldiers dispatched to the scene detected a Palestinian tossing more petrol bombs and opened fire at him. The military said three firebombs were found next to the body, and noted that thousands of Israelis use the road every day. (Jerusalem Post) Tens of thousands of joyous Iraqis crowded Baghdad's Liberation Square 37 years ago to watch Haviva Hanuka's brother, Naim, being hanged. He and 13 others - 9 of them Jewish - had been found guilty of treason and spying for Israel and the U.S. On Wednesday, Hanuka watched the man who put her brother to death as he sat in a cage, facing the death penalty for mass murder. "It's as if he is now on trial for my brother's murder," she said. (Jerusalem Post) Thousands gathered along the streets of downtown Jerusalem Thursday for the annual Sukkot Jerusalem March, featuring some 10,000 Israelis performing traditional songs and approximately 5,000 Christians marching in solidarity with Israel. (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
The Palestinians
Khalil Shikaki, director of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, says there has been a profound shift in the attitudes of Palestinians since the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in August. Prior to the withdrawal, Palestinians overwhelmingly gave the "end to the occupation" as their top priority. Now, he says, the priority is for an improvement in the economic life in the Palestinian areas, with an end to political corruption, and an end to the occupation falling far behind. Ironically, he says, the Palestinians now are strongly in support of a permanent ceasefire, even though most of them believe the Gaza pullout was due to the Palestinian use of force. (Council on Foreign Relations) Hamas sought two goals after Israel's Gaza disengagement. The first has been achieved: the establishment of a base for terrorist operations. Weapons are pouring in through Egypt because Israel has lost control of the border. Hamas is convinced that its second objective will spell the end of the Jewish state: the return of Palestinians, most of whom fled in 1948 and 1967, and their descendants, an estimated seven million people. ''The right of return is next,'' predicts Khaled Mashal, Hamas' majordomo. Jordan's King Abdullah agrees. ''We should stand [against] any plan that aims to deprive Palestinians of their right to return to their homeland,'' he said just after Israel evacuated Gaza. (Miami Herald) Terrorism is merely a tactic, though one which is revealing about the nature and goals of movements which make it the centerpiece of their strategy. The real problem is that of extremist revolutionary movements, without constraints on their behavior and with genocide as their goal, which are applauded by most regimes, media, and publicly vocal people of the Arab world and Iran. In short, an extremist minority sets the agenda for means and ends for a majority that accepts these things. In the Gaza Strip, it is increasingly clear that the Palestinian movement's goal remains Israel's complete destruction. Whatever average Palestinians or moderates think, those setting the agenda - radical nationalists or Islamists - put total victory and revenge above raising their people's living standards or getting a state. Abbas gives nice interviews to the Western media explaining how he will persuade militias to give up their guns and implement development programs for Gaza when it is obvious these things are never going to happen. (FrontPageMagazine) Many have argued that the induction of Hamas into the electoral process is essential for reducing the violence, that given the strong public support of Hamas, its absence would undermine the credibility of the electoral process. But is Hamas ready to be a player? Hamas has yet to establish its unqualified willingness to recognize the supremacy of the Palestinian Authority. To be a player, Hamas must learn to play the role of an opposition rather than opponent of the authority. It would be naive to suggest that Hamas militants were capable of making a transition towards seeking a political, not maximalist, solution vis-a-vis Israel since they are driven by an uncompromising religious extremism. Without moderation and the willingness to compromise, enlisting Hamas in the electoral process would only complicate matters for Abbas.If it is to compete with and perhaps replace the PLO, Hamas needs to present itself as a political party guided by compromise rather than a militant group driven by ideological militancy. It is far from certain whether Hamas has the ability to make that transformation. (Indian Express-India) Hamas continues to radicalize, recruit, and train students-turned-terrorists, and it maintains an intense effort to acquire and use chemical and biological weapons in terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians. There is good reason to assume that Hamas will attempt to advance its military capacity to include chemical and biological agents if provided with the opportunity to do so. (Washington Institute for Middle East Policy) Mahmoud Abbas seeks to build a political culture of responsibility. He has repeatedly said (in both English and Arabic) that violence is counterproductive to Palestinian aspirations. While Arafat saw the misery of Palestinian refugees as a tool to be exploited for political purposes, Abbas has now given two speeches in the last month, in Arabic, declaring that it is time that Palestinians built housing for the refugees and that the Palestinian cause is not served by keeping refugees in wretched conditions. (Los Angeles Times) Syrian Involvement in Lebanon
The Mehlis report will be discussed by the Security Council on Tuesday. The Council may pass two resolutions next week against Syria - the first in response to the Mehlis report. The second may condemn Syria's incomplete compliance with Resolution 1559, which calls for both a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarmament of militias, including Hizballah and Palestinian groups. Syria is said to have recently encouraged the flow of weapons to Palestinian militants in Lebanon, to help destabilize the country. With his back to the wall, what can Assad do? He can, of course, fully comply with the UN. But that would be political suicide amid the fingers pointed at members of his inner core. Efforts to put Syrian suspects on trial at home, meanwhile, would be rejected out of hand by the international community. At best, the Syrians can pray that eventual wrangling over a mixed or international tribunal means Lebanon must try the case itself, under Syria's threatening eye. That will not protect Syria, however, from the retaliation of hostile states once the Mehlis report has been fully digested. Or Assad can pursue brinksmanship - in Lebanon, Iraq, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict - assuming this will strengthen his hand at a time when there is no ready alternative to his rule. He may be right, and his regime's collapse may take some time as nobody wishes to see Syria descend into chaos. However, such an impasse only heightens the chances that Syria will face increasingly harsher sanctions and perhaps even military retaliation from the U.S. over Iraq. Assad is being offered several ways to impale himself; his only leeway is choosing which is the most painless. The writer, a Lebanese national, is opinion editor at the Beirut Daily Star. (Wall Street Journal, 21Oct05) With the publication of the interim UN report, it is believed that opposition to Assad's regime will expand to include members of the Alawi sect. The president's continued power would depend to a great extent on whether leading elements of the sect believe he will jeopardize its long-standing rule, thereby making it preferable to replace him. Sources say that at least seven senior intelligence officers, including seven Alawis, have been put in the investigators' crosshairs. The danger to Assad's regime is great, and the central government in Damascus could be paralyzed. (Ha'aretz) Other Issues
U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on 18 Oct 05: "As we continue these efforts to disrupt, degrade, and ultimately, defeat al-Qaeda and its supporters, we are better able to define the enemy. We are facing a transnational movement of extremist organizations, networks, and individuals - as well as their state and non-state supporters - that share an extremist ideology and pursue a common strategy." "In al-Qaeda's vision, Iraq would then become the safe haven from which to launch attacks against non-Islamist governments, including Israel, as well as Iraq's neighbors. Ultimately, al-Qaeda hopes to rally the Muslim masses, overthrow the moderate governments of the region, and reestablish the Islamic caliphate that, in our current day, would rule from Spain to Indonesia and beyond. The aspirations of these terrorist extremists do not end with the Middle East....Abu Bakar Bashir, the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah, the al-Qaeda affiliate responsible for deadly bombings in Indonesia, recently declared: "If the West wants peace, they'll have to accept to be governed by Islam." "From the beginning, the war on terror has been both a battle of arms and a battle of ideas....The antidote to this radical vision is democracy, justice, and the freedom agenda....Yussuf al-Ayyeri, one of Usama Bin Laden's closest associates, wrote: 'It is not the American war machine that should be of the utmost concern to Muslims. What threatens the future of Islam, in fact its very survival, is American democracy.'" (White House) "Pakistan on Saturday welcomed an offer of earthquake assistance from Israel," the Associated Press reported on Oct. 15, "but said it would have to be channeled through the United Nations, the Red Cross, or donated to a relief fund." The statement speaks volumes about the real stakes in the war between the civilized world and radical Islam. Loathing of Israel and Jews is not just a quirk of Pakistani politics. It is a hallmark of the radical Islamists whose terrorism worldwide has shed so much blood - and who hold sway over more than 70% of Pakistan, according to Tashbih Sayyed, editor of the weekly newspaper Pakistan Today. An outspoken Muslim moderate, Sayyed sees Musharraf's recent overtures toward Israel as an insincere tactic intended to impress Washington. "The Muslim world is plunged into an abyss of darkness, antimodernity, anti-Americanism, and anti-Semitism," Sayyed says. Only a minority of Muslims are personally hateful or fanatic. But a minority can wreak enormous damage when the majority is unwilling to act. (Boston Globe) Israel's High Court of Justice recently ruled that the separation barrier built to protect Israelis against Palestinian terrorist attacks was morally justified as well as legal. While ordering some changes in the routing to limit the impact on Palestinians, the Israeli court rejected the International Court of Justice's advisory opinion, which called the barrier illegal. The ICJ's majority had erased the context of terrorism, and focused exclusively on distorted political claims. Claims regarding international law and universal human rights norms, whether made with respect to Israel, the U.S., Britain, or other countries do not reflect any consistent moral position. Instead, they are used to pursue a political and ideological agenda that is essentially anti-democratic. If the principles of universal justice were the objectives, rather than simply the means for supporting personal goals, then Palestinian, Syrian, Saudi and other terrorists would have been tried for war crimes and human rights violations long ago. (Jerusalem Post) The National Intelligence Reform Act, passed in December 2004, requires the development of a presidential strategy for confronting Islamic extremism in collaboration with Saudi Arabia. So far, according to the September Government Accounting Office (GAO) report on the subject, U.S. agencies have been unable to determine the extent of Saudi Arabia's domestic and international cooperation to end radical Islamist propaganda. Indeed, the evidence suggests that the Saudis have done precious little to comply. Furthermore, the Saudis are continuing to fund terrorist activities as evident from the August capture of Y'akub Abu Assab, a senior Hamas operative who with Saudi money opened a Hamas communication center in eastern Jerusalem. Assab transferred hundred of thousands of dollars from Hamas headquarters in Saudi Arabia to Jerusalem, and from there, following instructions he received from Saudi Arabia, he distributed operational instructions and funding for Hamas activities in the West Bank and Gaza. and gave money to families of suicide bombers. Under U.S. pressure, Saudi Arabia declared repeatedly that it would close some of the charities that have been identified as spreading Wahhabism and funding terrorism. However, the September GAO report notes that: "in May 2005, a Treasury official told us it was unclear whether the government of Saudi Arabia had implemented its plans." As for the Saudi promise to establish a new National Commission for Relief and Charity Work Abroad, the GAO said: "as of July 2005, this commission was not yet fully operational." (FrontPageMagazine) The political goal of the Atlas of Palestine 1948: Reconstructing Palestine by Salman Abu Sitta is to delegitimate Zionism and Israel and to promote the re-Palestinization of Palestine/the Land of Israel through a process that includes the return of the refugees and the dismantling of the Jewish state. While this vast treasure-house of maps is a major boon to researchers, Abu Sitta's narrative is unabashedly propagandistic and often factually wrong. There are dozens of cases in which there is no correspondence between Abu Sitta's assertions in the text and the references that he purportedly bases them on. From reading this atlas, the reader will not know that it was the Palestinian Arab onslaught on the Jewish community in Palestine in November to December 1947 that provoked Jewish counter-violence, and that it was the follow-up invasion of the country by the armies of the surrounding Arab states in May to June 1948 that turned what might have been an ephemeral phenomenon into a still larger tragedy. The reader will come away believing that the Zionists unleashed a pre-planned campaign of "ethnic cleansing" against hapless Palestinian Arab villagers who were simply sitting at home embroidering folksy shirts. A more accurate description would go something like this: the UN General Assembly voted by more than a two-thirds majority in favor of partition and the establishment of Jewish and Arab states. The Palestinians and the Arab states rejected the resolution and vowed to prevent its implementation. Throughout the Arab world the cry went up for "jihad." On November 30, 1947, the day after the partition vote, Arab gunmen ambushed two Jewish buses near Petah Tikva, killing seven passengers, and Arab snipers began firing from Jaffa into Tel Aviv's streets. These attacks marked the start of the war. (New Republic) Observations: Putting Saudi Arabia in Its Place - Nibras Kazimi (New York Sun)
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