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DAILY ALERT

April 22, 2005

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In-Depth Issues:

Sen. Brownback: Link Recognition of United Israeli Jerusalem, Palestinian State (OneJerusalem.org)
    U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kansas) has introduced S.J. Res. 14, the United Jerusalem bill.
    Section 2 states:
  * Jerusalem has been the capital of the Jewish people for 3,000 years
  * Jerusalem has never been the capital of any other state other than for the Jewish people
  * Jerusalem is not mentioned by name in the Koran
    Section 4 states: The United States shall not recognize a Palestinian state until the international community resolves the status of Jerusalem by recognizing the city as the undivided capital of Israel.


Israel HighWay
- April 21, 2005

Issue of the Week:
    Democracy in the Middle East - Is This the Season of Freedom?

PA TV: U.S. Forcing Christianity on Muslims - Itamar Marcus and Barbara Crook (Palestinian Media Watch)
    On April 15, PA TV broadcast the Friday sermon of Sheikh Ibrahim Mudayris, who said:
    "Haven't you heard of our prisoners in Palestine, have you not heard of our prisoners in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and all over the world, who are exploited and imprisoned, and are offered conversion to Christianity?"
    "What Caesar did, dipping Muslims in boiling oil, was one hundred thousand times lighter than what their soldiers are doing today to our wives and daughters in Iraq, in Palestine, in Guantanamo, and in Abu Gharib."


Russia Offers Choppers to PA - Arieh O'Sullivan (Jerusalem Post)
    Russia has reportedly offered to donate to the PA two Mi-17 transport helicopters for VIP use to replace the choppers Israel destroyed in 2001.
    According to Jane's Defence Weekly, the Russians have also offered to supply the Palestinians with 50 BRDM-2 armored vehicles, no longer in use by the Russian Army.
    The PA had also asked for Russian pilots and maintenance crew to support the aircraft.
    See also Russia to Donate Choppers, Old Armored Vehicles to Palestinians (MosNews-Russia)


PA Suspends Judge Who Criticized Lawlessness - Khaled Abu Toameh (Jerusalem Post)
    The PA has suspended a senior Muslim religious judge (kadi), Dr. Hassan Jouju, who criticized the PA judicial system and complained in a published interview about anarchy and lawlessness.
    The decision contravenes promises made by Mahmoud Abbas to democratize Palestinian society and encourage freedom of expression.


Saudi Clerics Inspired Terrorists Caught in Iraq (MEMRI)
    Several Saudi terrorists recently captured in Iraq stated they were inspired by the communique of 26 Saudi clerics (published in November 2004) sanctioning jihad against the U.S. in Iraq.
    In a March 2005 TV interview on Al-Jazeera, one of the signatories, the Islamist Sheikh Salman Al-'Odeh, on whose website the communique was first posted, explained that the 26 religious figures had issued it to fill a void since the Saudi religious establishment had not issued such a call.


Ukraine to Send Peacekeepers to Israel-Syria Conflict Zone (MosNews-Russia)
    The Ukrainian parliament has backed President Viktor Yushchenko's proposal to send up to 200 peacekeepers to the area of the Israel-Syria conflict to join the UN forces watching over Israeli and Syrian troops.
    Due to fly to the Middle East this summer, the Ukrainian servicemen will only provide logistics support to UN troops and will not take part in armed missions.


Israel Gets "Beautiful Holiday Gift" from Anonymous Donor - Yuval Yoaz (Ha'aretz)
    Thirteen precious works of art including valuable paintings by Picasso, Van Gogh, and Renoir have been donated to Israel by an anonymous Jewish philanthropist.
    The donor, a savvy art dealer who died about a year ago, left his entire fortune - estimated at more than NIS100 million - to the State of Israel.
    "It is heartwarming to see how Jews from all over the world care about Israel," said Shlomo Shahar, the Custodian General at the Justice Ministry. "This is a beautiful holiday gift to the country."


Tourist Entries Up 25% - Avi Temkin (Globes)
    Tourist entries to Israel rose by 25% in the first quarter of 2005, compared with the corresponding quarter of 2004, the Central Bureau of Statistics reported last week.
    372,500 tourists entered Israel during the first quarter, with 146,600 in March.
    585,000 Israeli traveled overseas during the first quarter of 2005.


Cornering the Market on U.S. Jewish Demographics - (JTA/Jerusalem Post)
    Philanthropist Michael Steinhardt and his Jewish Life Network/Steinhardt Foundation have joined forces with Brandeis University to create the Steinhardt Social Research Institute.
    Under the direction of Leonard Saxe, and backed by Steinhardt's initial $12 million gift, organizers hope that the institute will become the premier site for collection and analysis of statistical data about American Jews.


Useful Reference:

Passover Interview with Prime Minister Sharon (Jerusalem Post)
    The "published assertion [of plans for a second disengagement] has done great damage. It is a complete lie. The only place to which we are able to proceed from the present situation after the disengagement, if the Palestinians do everything they are supposed to do, is to the road map."
    "There is nothing else. And if the Palestinians don't do what they are obligated to do, there will be nothing else. Period."
    "The Americans also see that we are in the pre-road map era and that to reach the road map stage the Palestinians will have to do what they have to do."

Passover Interview with President Katsav (Jerusalem Post)
    A formal apology in the name of successive governments should be issued to Gush Katif settlers who moved there at the state's behest and are now facing evacuation, President Moshe Katsav said.

The Passover Holiday (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
    The Passover holiday - marking the Exodus from Egypt and the liberation from bondage - will be celebrated this year between sunset on Saturday, 23 April, and sunset on Saturday, 30 April.
    Outside of Israel, the holiday is celebrated through Sunday, 1 May.


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We wish our readers a Happy Passover holiday.

News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:

  • Israel Frees Nine Jordanian Prisoners as Goodwill Gesture
    Israel freed nine Jordanians from its jails on Thursday, in keeping with a pledge to improve ties between the two countries, Israel Radio said. Seven prisoners crossed the border at the Allenby bridge over the Jordan River, while two chose to remain with relatives in the West Bank. Jordan had demanded the prisoners' release after returning its ambassador to Tel Aviv in February following a four-year absence. None of the prisoners were involved in deadly attacks against Israelis. Since 2000, several Jordanians have left Jordan to join Palestinian militant groups that have carried out attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians. (Reuters)
  • Saddam's Men Strike Back, Leave River of Blood - James Hider
    Abu Qaddum lays out the pictures of mutilated bodies dredged from the Tigris River like a player dealing cards. Some had their hands cut off, others are headless or burnt. Another was strangled. He thinks one corpse might be his younger brother. The shocking images come from Iraq's new killing fields - the small town of Madain just 20 miles from Baghdad. "I think there may be 300 bodies in the Tigris," Abu Qaddum - a resident who survived the massacre - told The Times Thursday. (Times-UK)
        See also Ethnic Cleansing Claim as Iraqi Hostages Found Dead (Times-UK)
  • Israel Plans Defense During Gaza Pullout - Dan Ephron
    The Israeli military, concerned that Palestinian officials will fail to keep armed groups in check during Israel's planned withdrawal from the Gaza Strip this summer, is preparing a contingency plan to deploy its own soldiers in Palestinian towns and villages adjacent to settlements, a senior army officer involved in planning the pullout said Thursday. Some Israeli officials predicted factions in Gaza would stage attacks during the evacuation in order to bolster the perception that the Jewish state is being driven from the Strip. ''We are not going to let [Palestinians] shoot mortars or rockets into the settlements while we are evacuating them," the officer said. (Boston Globe)
  • Guns of Gaza Stay Loaded - Conal Urquhart
    Abu Thair, a leader of the Fatah-affiliated brigades in Gaza City, likes to appear with a masked group of gunmen to illustrate that while the guns of Gaza are silent, the magazines are loaded. It is a stance shared by all the Palestinian factions. Ghazi Hamed, a likely Hamas candidate in this summer's elections for the Palestinian legislative council, said he doubts the calm will result in a lasting peace and that "we will continue to prepare ourselves and develop weapons."  (Guardian-UK)
  • Facing Sanctions, Iran Uses Oil to Seek Allies - Jad Mouawad
    As it faces the threat of global sanctions from the U.S. and Europe because of suspicions that it is turning its nuclear program to weapons production, Iran is fighting back with a powerful weapon of its own: its vast oil and gas resources. Iran's ruling clerics are meticulously arranging energy sales and building partnerships with influential countries, including China and India, as a way to win stronger friendships around the world. Iran holds 10% of the world's oil deposits and has the second-largest gas reserves. (New York Times)
  • In Syria, Lebanese Detainees Still Languish - Nicholas Blanford
    Thousands of Lebanese from all religious backgrounds and political persuasions disappeared into the black hole of Syria's brutal prison system over the past 29 years. But with Syrian troops close to completing a withdrawal from Lebanon in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1559, Lebanese human rights activists are redoubling their efforts to find more than 280 detainees in Syria who remain unaccounted for. The detainees include Christian militiamen, Lebanese soldiers, Iraqi Baathists, and Sunni radicals. With the return of 46 prisoners in December 2000, the Syrian government claimed there were no more prisoners held in Syria. (Christian Science Monitor)
  • News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

  • Palestinians Attack IDF Patrol on Israeli Side of Gaza Fence, One Wounded - Amos Harel and Nir Hasson
    An Israel Defense Forces soldier was hit in the head by shrapnel and moderately wounded Thursday when his jeep was hit by an explosive device near the Gaza Strip security fence on Thursday. The device was fired from the Palestinian side of the fence at a jeep patrolling on the Israeli side several dozen meters away. Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack, even though it is part of the cease-fire. Military sources said international pressure will have to be brought to bear on Abbas to bring order to Gaza. The sources said the situation in recent days shows a loss of control by the PA security forces and that things could quickly deteriorate further. (Ha'aretz)
  • Israel Demands PA Collect Weapons - Margot Dudkevitch
    At a meeting between Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz and PA official Muhammad Dahlan on Thursday in Tel Aviv, Mofaz demanded that the Palestinians live up to their commitments and start collecting the weapons of fugitives in Jericho and Tulkarm. The Palestinians have instead integrated the fugitives into the security services, thereby legitimizing their weapons, Israeli security officials said. Security officials noted that Israel expects the Palestinians to combat terror and prevent any violence during the upcoming evacuation of settlements this summer. (Jerusalem Post)
        See also Dahlan: "We'll Collect Weapons" - Hanan Greenberg
    Dahlan promised Mofaz that the Palestinians will fulfill their responsibilities and that the weapons of wanted suspects would be confiscated. Government sources in Washington say that no one in the PA wants to take responsibility for reigning in terrorists right before the Palestinian parliamentary elections. "Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) is weak and can't deliver the goods," said the source. (Yediot Ahronot-Ynet)
  • Israel Fears Russian Missiles May End Up in Hands of Terrorists - Amos Harel
    The security establishment's chief concern regarding the missile deal between Russia and Syria is that the arms could fall by indirect means into the hands of terror organizations in the territories, thus endangering Israeli civilian air traffic. A senior military official said Thursday that it was not too late to block the deal. Russia's commitment to sell only vehicle-mounted missiles and not shoulder-fired rockets (which would be easier to smuggle) does not alleviate Israel's fears because it is relatively easy to convert the weapon to a shoulder-launched missile. Valdmir Putin told Israel TV on Wednesday that the sale of the SA-18 missiles to Syria would hinder Israel's ability to fly over the residence of Syrian President Bashar Assad. (Ha'aretz)
  • Palestinian Parliament Approves Election Law - Arnon Regular
    The Palestinian Legislative Council approved a law on Wednesday to hold elections on July 17. Candidates will vie for 132 seats in the legislature, an increase from the current 88. Two-thirds are to be elected locally in 16 districts and one-third on the basis of party lists. (Ha'aretz)
        See also Fatah Bloc Legislators Agree to Hold Elections on Time (PA Press Center)
  • EU to Aid Reform of Palestinian Security Services
    PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei and EU Mideast envoy Marc Otte on Wednesday exchanged letters launching a program of EU support for reform of the Palestinian security services. Located in Ramallah and headed by a senior British police officer, the EU's Coordinating Office for Palestinian Police Support (COPPS) will channel training and equipment to the Palestinian police. (AP/Ha'aretz)
  • Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):

  • A Widening Expectations Gap between Israelis and Palestinians
    - IDF Brig.-Gen. Michael Herzog
    Palestinians point to the Abbas-engineered cooling-down period as an example of a positive step on their part that needs to be reinforced by positive Israeli actions. Yet Israel refuses to jump headlong into resumed peace negotiations before terrorist infrastructure is dismantled. The reorganization of the Palestinian security forces has been delayed, and their current efforts to thwart terrorist activities are far from systematic.
        Moreover, the PA has not dealt with the 495 West Bank fugitives on Israel's wanted list. The gradual handover of West Bank cities was based on a bilateral understanding that the fugitives would be allowed to return to normal life if they laid down their arms and renounced further violence, but so far Abbas has only established a committee to negotiate with them. Meanwhile, terrorists are trying to improve the range and the accuracy of their Kassam rockets, and Palestinian security forces are doing nothing to stop them. It seems that Abbas is acting only when he is challenged directly. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
  • Assad Under Siege - Editorial
    The U.S. and EU this week repeated their demand that an interim Lebanese government be formed quickly, so that elections can take place next month as scheduled. On Monday, President Bush demanded that Syria "not only get out with your military forces, but get out with your intelligence services, too; get completely out of Lebanon, so Lebanon can be free and the people can be free."
        Mr. Bush on Monday denounced Hizballah's efforts to sabotage the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and demanded that Syria end its support for Hizballah. Unfortunately, France and the EU still refuse to list Hizballah - the No. 1 indigenous threat to Lebanon's stability - as a terrorist organization. If the Europeans are serious about bringing real, enduring reform to Lebanon, it's not enough to chase Syria out. They must take a more soberminded approach to the danger posed by Hizballah. (Washington Times)
  • Abbas a Weakening Leader - Barry Rubin
    Certainly, Abbas's big achievement is the cease-fire, but it was gained because almost all forces on the Palestinian side were exhausted and ready for a break. Having lost the war, they were happy to end it, at least until the next time violence seems appealing. Blaming Israel is going to be hard. The Israeli government has released prisoners, wants to turn over West Bank towns, supports the PA getting more money, has stopped pursuing wanted men, and is ready to leave the Gaza Strip. (UPI/Washington Times)
        See also Abbas is a Disappointment, and Not Only to Israelis - Graham Usher
    Palestinians do not see Abbas as a leader heading for a fall - at least not yet. But 100 days into his watch there is a sense of growing disappointment. It is a new mood and a far cry from even the mild optimism generated by the elections in January when Abbas was cast as the great white hope of Palestinian nationalism. Obstruction to reform, led by elements on Fatah's central committee and executed by Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in their pay, is passively supported by large swathes of the PA bureaucracy, including several security chiefs, all of whom have an interest in seeing reform fail. (Al-Ahram-Egypt)
  • The "Oldest Hatred" Thrives in Britain - Melanie Phillips
    As the British general election campaign has loomed, it has seemed as if an anti-Jewish virus has been unleashed by the Left. Demographic change and crude political calculation explain some of this. There are 1.8 million Muslims in Britain and 280,000 identifying Jews. Senior Labour figures say privately that, as a result, Jews have got to get used to the fact that their concerns are no longer of any account, that the Muslim vote is the only show in town, and that therefore the Labour Party will adopt the "Muslim narrative" on Israel/Palestine.
        There is no doubt that the paranoia and prejudice about Israel and the Jews that pours out of the Arab and Muslim world has significantly poisoned the atmosphere in Britain. There is a firestorm of anti-Jewish, anti-Israel, and anti-American hatred in the wider population. The British media seem to agree that there is indeed a world Jewish conspiracy linking the Jews of America, Israel, and the war in Iraq. The "oldest hatred" has mutated from a desire to rid the world of the Jews into a desire to rid the world of the Jewish state. (Jerusalem Post)
  • Blunt Boycott - Editorial
    Feelings are likely to be running high this week when members of the [British] Association of University Teachers debate whether to boycott three Israeli universities. Universities should shun such methods in principle and remain open to free thinking and intellectual exchanges across frontiers and cultures. While a case can be made for the use of boycotts as a tactic to put pressure on oppressive regimes, in this case, they are right to question whether it is either appropriate or effective.
        AUT members are not proposing to boycott universities in North Korea, Zimbabwe, or Sudan, where the government has been accused of perpetrating genocide against its own people. Supporters of boycotts often argue that Israel should be treated like apartheid South Africa. That is a controversial parallel which many Israelis see as delegitimating their state. Friends of the Palestinians should question whether this kind of boycott is not a blunt instrument that is unlikely to serve their cause well. (Guardian-UK)
        See also Boycotting Israel? Read This - Douglas Davis
    Pay attention, British professors. If you support the boycott of Israel proposed by some of your fellow academics - and if you are to remain intellectually honest - prepare for a radical lifestyle change. Firstly, unplug your computers. Now switch off your interactive digital television sets. Now throw away your mobile phones. These machines are not only the engine of the globalized, capitalist world, but they also depend on technologies that have been produced by Israeli academics in the Zionist entity. Also, you may not use the British Library because it has been computerized by Ex Libris, a Zionist company that was spawned by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
        Israel has nurtured the Palestinian universities and colleges in the West Bank; offers access to its universities to all its citizens, regardless of race, religion, ethnicity, or sex; and has educated tens of thousands of Palestinians at Israeli universities. (National Post-Canada)
  • Will the Next Democratic Revolution Be Egypt's? - Mona Makram-Ebeid
    The momentum for political and constitutional reform in Egypt is gathering pace. There is a general consensus in Egypt: substantial reform of some kind is necessary and long overdue. Most importantly, liberal voices in Egypt are not merely a response to U.S. democratic initiatives. They are a homegrown challenge to an entrenched political order, and they are riding a powerful historical current. The writer, a former member of Egypt's Parliament, is Professor of Political Science at the American University, Cairo. (RealClearPolitics)

    Weekend Features

  • The End of the Exodus from Egypt - Amiram Barkat
    The Synagogue of Elijah the Prophet in Alexandria, Egypt - considered the largest in the Middle East - is an impressive building with a broad white marble staircase leading to the entrance. The huge space inside, which until the mid-20th century held 1,000 worshipers, is illuminated by the light of dozens of seven-branched candelabra, with the addition of sunlight that streams through the stained-glass windows. The president of the Alexandria community, dentist Dr. Max Salame, recently celebrated his 90th birthday. Lina Mattatia, the synagogue's legendary tour guide, is over 80. The head of the community, Victor Balassiano, who claims the title of "the youngest Jew in Egypt," is 65. (Ha'aretz)
  • Israel Deal Saves Ailing Egyptian Industry - William Wallis
    Few Egyptians would have thought that economic salvation for one of their country's biggest job providers might lie in neighboring Israel. But last December's historic trade agreement with Egypt's erstwhile enemy appears to offer just that. Recently returned from his first trip to Tel Aviv, Fadel Marzouk, 31, the manager of Giza Spinning and Weaving, one of the country's largest privately owned textile manufacturers, says he is hiring 1,000 extra workers and building a new factory. At the Metco factory in Port Said, Egypt, Israeli Nachman Schwartz arrived from Israel three months ago to manage production that includes Marks and Spencer's machine-washable suits. Without the deal, factory owners are convinced Egypt's textile industry would be withering in the face of Asian competition. (Financial Times-UK)
  • Being Leftist and Anti-Semitic in Germany - Susanne Urban
    After the reunification of Germany, 1989 surveys indicated that there was much more anti-Semitism in West Germany than in East Germany. This was a fallacy arising from the distinction between anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism. Since then, eastern German "anti-Zionism" has merged with western German "anti-Semitism" into a homogeneous whole. Since 2000, the German Left has voiced its solidarity and support for the Palestinians and for suicide bombers. This is an extension of the New Left anti-Zionism of the 1960s, with the same structural motifs and expressions. There is also a major trend in the German Left of Nazifying and demonizing Israel, opening the door to proclaiming Jews to be the source of the world's evils. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
  • Ben-Gurion's Dreams - Tamara Novis
    Home to 22 young Israelis who decided to fulfill Ben-Gurion's dream of settling the Negev in the 21st century, Kfar Adiel was established in December 2003, the first of 11 projected student villages in the Negev and Galilee. Its founders envision a permanent settlement with 110 houses. The very first students who arrived found a large area of desert sand. "We slept in two trailers with no water or electricity," recalls Tami Nahmias, 24. "It was a tremendous feeling. We'd wake up early. By 7 a.m., you'd already be feeling guilty if you were still in bed. I saw people who were light-years away from physical labor, hammering nails, and painting. A new village was born out of nothing."  (Jerusalem Post)
  • Path to Peace - Aron U. Raskas
    Barry Schuman, a Baltimore native, left his job at a prestigious New York law firm and, with his wife and children, did what Jews have done for centuries: they moved to Israel. They live today in Kochav HaShachar, a beautiful community of about 300 largely professional families in the heart of the Judean-Samarian mountains, just 18 miles north of downtown Jerusalem.
        Many observers bristle at the term "Judea and Samaria," dismissing it as propaganda invented by "settlers" for political ends. In fact, it is the canard of a "West Bank" that barely existed 40 years ago, when it was substituted into the lexicon of the debate in an effort to eradicate references to the great Jewish past. Throughout history, maps, photographs, and travel guides described these territories by their time-honored names: Judea and Samaria. Even UN resolutions - including the 1947 Partition Resolution - utilized those terms. (Baltimore Jewish Times)
  • Times Didn't Hide Holocaust, Just Buried It - Sidney Zion
    It's a given that the New York Times ignored the Holocaust. Now we have a book that says it ain't so - that from the beginning to the end of World War II, the Times published 1,186 stories about the extermination of the European Jews. It just buried the stories inside. Buried by The Times, by Laurel Leff, a professor of journalism and a former reporter for the Wall Street Journal, proves that the Times not only knew about the Holocaust but printed many of the horrific details. In the six years of the war, just 26 pieces made the front page, half of them in 1944, when most of the Jews were dead. And only a half-dozen mentioned that Jews were the victims. (New York Daily News)
  • Observations:

    The Coming Pax Americana - Efraim Halevy (Ha'aretz)

    • During most of his long rule as president, Hafez Assad leaned on the support of the Soviet Union. After its collapse, he decided wisely that he should try to curry favor with the one remaining superpower, the United States. Thus he took the U.S. side in the first Gulf War. Up to the time of his death in June 2000, he did not forsake the American orientation that he had adopted in his last years.
    • Bashar abandoned his father's path. Ahead of the second Gulf War, in 2003, he took the Iraqi side against the U.S. He allowed thousands of combatants to cross the Syrian border into Iraq, where they inflicted heavy casualties on U.S. forces; he deepened Syria's cooperation with Iran far beyond his father's tactical cooperation; and he intervened so blatantly in Lebanon that France, Syria's traditional friend, this year led an initiative in the UN Security Council that ended in an unequivocal resolution calling for the full withdrawal of Syrian military and intelligence forces from Lebanon. Effectively, Bashar Assad has brought about his country's isolation, and for his broad strategic failure, the Syrian ruler will pay a steep price.
    • After the flames of democratization start to singe the corners of the kingdom in Damascus, the days of the minority Alawi regime - less than 20% of the country's population - will be numbered.
    • The campaign against Iran's nuclear project is taking place in regional conditions that are not convenient for Iran: Its Syrian partner is being led by a leader who is not very smart; Hizballah, its forward arm in Lebanon, is under Security Council pressure to disarm; and the American military presence to the west in Iraq and to the east in Afghanistan is heightening the danger of regional isolation that Iran has long feared.
    • President Bush is relentlessly promoting the road map, which he views as an important instrument to execute his policy. At first, the process of Israeli-American negotiations seemed to create a convenient starting point for Israel and appeared to give Israel achievements in relation to the U.S. position regarding various aspects of the permanent solution. However, it makes negotiations between the sides superfluous. It makes the U.S. the exclusive arbiter in all issues of the conflict and in the future will make it impossible for Israel to exert pressure on the Palestinians in relation to subjects on which the Americans adopt the Palestinian position.
    • Everything will be decided according to the road map, and the validity of the permanent solution will rest mainly on the preservation of the power and presence of the U.S. in the region. The disengagement will be the first link in the chain of shaping Israel's permanent borders. The continuation will be decided in the next three years not only by the balance of forces between Israel and its neighbors, but in large measure by the outcomes of the other campaigns that are taking place around us.

      The writer is a former head of the Mossad.


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